Amid Stock Market Comeback, S&P 500 Forecast to Reach Record Highs

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The S&P 500 will reach record highs by the end of June after a comeback of more than 18% from a Christmas Eve plunge that had investors worried, UBS strategist Keith Parker predicted this week.

“A more ‘patient’ Fed helped turn risk sentiment,” Parker wrote in a client note this week that was cited by Bloomberg. “With the Fed providing a key circuit breaker, we see U.S. equities hitting new highs in the second quarter assuming a positive outcome from U.S.-China trade talks and a recovery in U.S./global growth.”

The Federal Reserve decided in late January that suspending its plan to raise interest rates would pose “few risks.”

When the Fed raised rates in September it was pretty much a given there would be another hike in December followed by several more in 2019, as it worked to cool a hot economy.

Yet by the time December rolled around, tumbling equity markets and economic indicators left many wondering whether the anticipated hike would even take place. In the end, rates did rise for the fourth time in 2018, but expectations for further increases in the near term fell as the Fed lowered its growth outlook for both 2018 and 2019.

It’s unclear whether there will be a rate hike at some point in 2019, with some Fed officials looking to raise rates if the economy is growing at expected levels. So far this year, we’ve seen a decline in consumer spending that triggered a downgraded estimate for Q4 GDP.

Related stories:

This Week in CRE: Fed Pause on Rate Hikes Explained, CBRE Moves Into Coworking, Ninth Inning Isn’t Always Last

Mixed Indicators Show Goldilocks Economy Isn’t Overheating ‒ And That’s a Good Sign for CRE

View from the Top: What the CRE Market Thinks about 2019 ‒ A Tale of Two Cocktails

 

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